Author Archive for Lyndon

Powerset vs. Google

Alrighty then and off we go. Powerset, the new kid on the search block wants to take on the titan [or will it soon be, Titanic] we know, love and maybe some hate, called Google?

Here’s part of the splurb from the Powerset blog about this latest and greatest search wizardry release.

Powerset is excited to announce the launch of our first product, which reinvents the search and discovery experience for Wikipedia articles.

Instead of being limited to keywords, Powerset allows you to enter keywords, phrases, or questions. Instead of just showing you a list of blue links, Powerset gives you more accurate search results, often answering questions directly, and aggregates information from across multiple articles. Finally, instead of leaving you at the search page, Powerset’s technology follows you into enhanced Wikipedia articles, giving you a better way to digest and navigate content quickly. This post serves as a jumping-off point for all of the key information about the launch.

Okay. So the starting point is aimed at Wikipedia articles. That’s rather cunning, yet I cannot really see what the extra value here is. What’s the big deal? How does this make this different from Google and when, where and how will Powerset be making money? My only real thought about the money making bit is that they’re going to share their advertising revenues with the users of Powerset, in a sort of affiliate type mechanism. Somehow you’ll be paid by Powerset for your searching activities, however probably more importantly, for any contributions you can make to help their software make better search result recommendations, through some collaborative technique.

Wishful thinking? Maybe. I just cannot for the life of me see right now how they are going to do things differently. I must be missing something here.

Google Friend Connect

Let us have a look at the introduction.

Websites that are not social networks may still want to be social. But the barriers to offering social applications on the site have been considerable. Google Friend Connect changes this by enabling any site to offer dozens of social gadgets created by Google and OpenSocial developers to their visitors. This means more visitors spending more time on a more engaging website — with absolutely no programming required to make it happen.

Okay then, how about the benefits and features?

Google Friend Connect lets you grow traffic by easily adding social features to your website. With just a few snippets of code, you get more people engaging more deeply with your site.

Attract more visitors. Visitors bring along friends from social networks like Facebook, orkut, and others to interact on your site.

Enrich your site with social features. Choose engaging social features from a catalog of gadgets provided by Google and the OpenSocial developer community.

No programming whatsoever. Just copy and paste snippets of code into your site, and Google Friend Connect does the rest.

Interesting, very interesting.

There’s a video that gives some examples as to how a website owner could integrate gadgets in to their website, beefing up interactivity opportunities and providing a simple way for people to connect online to other people who are also interested in the same website or even, a single page or even pages, on a website.

As you can see [or saw] in the demo video, it all looks rather easy. Maybe it will be a winner.

As with all innovations from Google, there just has to be some controversy, or the potential for it, which we can find over at Read Write Web, with thanks to Marshall Kirkpatrick. Not everybody is applauding.

Later tonight Google will launch a new service called Friend Connect, aiming to “bring the social” to any page around the web. Unfortunately the service takes a bunch of open technical standards yearning to see the light of day through mass adoption and puts them in a dark little box where they will struggle to breathe.

Google could have worked with other large companies and with the creators of these standards (some are in the Data Portability Working Group that Google joined, for example) to tackle the hard questions around data exposure, integration and privacy. Instead they are pushing their Open Social standard around in an iframe. Easy is very good, but co-operation could have come up with something better than this.

The rest of the article can be found over here.

The way I see it, everything is a work in progress. This is one step forward for many and whether or not some people may see this as perfect or the best that can be done right now, it is at least something. Maybe less people should be hung up on throwing out how they feel things have to be, and rather looking for the silver lining and make the effort to contribute constructively, rather than bash deductively.

Just my small slice of the wisdom pie.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan

Quite by chance, as I was finding a book for my girlfriend, I came across ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable‘ by Nassim Nicholas Taleb [link]

Excerpt:

Before the discovery of Australia, people in the old world were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others extremely concerned with the coloring of birds), but that is not where the significance of the story lies. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird.

I push one step beyond this philosophical-logical question into an empirical reality, and one that has obsessed me since childhood. What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. Ever since we left the Pleistocene, some ten millennia ago, the effect of these Black Swans has been increasing. It started accelerating during the industrial revolution, as the world started getting more complicated, while ordinary events, the ones we study and discuss and try to predict from reading the newspapers, have become increasingly inconsequential.

Excerpt lifted from The New York Times, that carries the first chapter of this book over here.

Oh, what the heck, let me further entice you with another snippet.

The central idea of this book concerns our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly the large deviations: Why do we, scientists or nonscientists, hotshots or regular Joes, tend to see the pennies instead of the dollars? Why do we keep focusing on the minutiae, not the possible significant large events, in spite of the obvious evidence of their huge influence? And, if you follow my argument, why does reading the newspaper actually decrease your knowledge of the world?

It is easy to see that life is the cumulative effect of a handful of significant shocks. It is not so hard to identify the role of Black Swans, from your armchair (or bar stool). Go through the following exercise. Look into your own existence. Count the significant events, the technological changes, and the inventions that have taken place in our environment since you were born and compare them to what was expected before their advent. How many of them came on a schedule? Look into your own personal life, to your choice of profession, say, or meeting your mate, your exile from your country of origin, the betrayals you faced, your sudden enrichment or impoverishment. How often did these things occur according to plan?

What You Do Not Know

Black Swan logic makes what you don’t know far more relevant than what you do know. Consider that many Black Swans can be caused and exacerbated by their being unexpected.

Think of the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001: had the risk been reasonably conceivable on September 10, it would not have happened. If such a possibility were deemed worthy of attention, fighter planes would have circled the sky above the twin towers, airplanes would have had locked bulletproof doors, and the attack would not have taken place, period. Something else might have taken place. What? I don’t know. Isn’t it strange to see an event happening precisely because it was not supposed to happen? What kind of defense do we have against that? Whatever you come to know (that New York is an easy terrorist target, for instance) may become inconsequential if your enemy knows that you know it. It may be odd to realize that, in such a strategic game, what you know can be truly inconsequential.

So here we have a black swan. It was thought improbable to exist. That was until it was proven that it did actually exist, as explained above. What however does this mean to us though?

‘Black Swans’ challenge conventional thinking by allowing for unknown factors, we might call them unknown variables in some or another respect, to enter in to the field of the known, thereby transforming what is known in to something else. The effect of these changes can be on a grand change causing scale, out of the blue or they can be gradual, developing over time.

I have started to hold the thought that perhaps the expectations which we hold about almost every facet or element of our life, with the view to using these expectations as measures or a means to measure specific outcomes, are rather, well, to put it mildly, weak and therefore in some instances, dangerous. That is to say, that making too many assumptions about what we know or what we think we know, can often make us more ignorant with knowledge to back our assumptions up, rather than keeping an open mind and allowing for more dynamic factors to enter in to play to show us what there really is.

Therefore, if we abandon absolute assumptions and resist historical analysis based on assumptions, we might actually learn more through being ignorant. This is not so much taking the point of view of “thinking outside the box” - but rather asking - “Is there a box [container] anyway?”

This kind of thinking is going to be problematic because it requires an abstract perspective. To me at least, I think that my recent posting on The Madness and Wisdom of Crowds demonstrates something of a ‘Black Swan’ incident.

In my posting, I mentioned that the annual migration of animals took place, based on the instinctual knowledge [instinctual assumption] that better grazing was to be found after a long and arduous trek that necessitated a river crossing. At the point where the river crossing was to occur, I made mention of an incident where an unwitting predator spooked a herd of wildebeest, causing what should have been a safe passage in large numbers, across the river, to stampede to a less than ideal crossing point, where many animals died. [Where an event changed the wisdom of crowds to the madness of crowds.]

That to my mind, is a good example of a Black Swan incident. The same might be said of the events leading up to WW 2. Why did the French with their Maginot Line, not conceive that their best defense, was their greatest weakness, and in effect, added to their disbelief that the Germans would actually invade them, did nothing more to protect themselves? They assumed incorrectly. Just think about any other instance from history, even your own personal history, where the improbable became the actual or the real, and you never saw it coming.

Sometimes certain events lead up to other events that no one expected them to lead up to. Assumptions may have been wrong or certain facts may have been ignored, having been taken as a statistical given or a general rule of thumb common sense idea. When things change, what happens next and then how do we really view the past?

To some, this can be shaky territory to work from, however to others, and I include myself here, it seems that there is something quite fascinating to keep an open mind and see if I [we] can actually learn something here. I don’t particularly know where this is all going to go, if anywhere, however I’m sure that there is something of value here.

Keep you posted if I think of anything else.

How to Do What You Love by Paul Graham

As I’m eternally asking questions about all sorts of things, I sometimes come across an unexpected paper or blog that strikes a chord with me. Today I came across How to Do What You Love by Paul Graham. I’m sure I’ve read this before and maybe so have you too. Nevertheless, I decided to copy the entire essay he wrote and put it here, with the best wishes I feel Paul has to share with those who are interested in this particular subject.

It is perhaps, next to selecting a life partner, buying the home you’ll raise your family in or any other major decision that you’re likely to make in your life, one of the most important elements of human life - working. Or doing work that you like. This essay reminds me of something I heard whilst listening to a recording from an Alan Watts lecture. “A sensible person will do what they like to earn a living.” It made sense to me then as it makes sense to me now.

Still though, the process or perhaps it is the path that we follow towards 1.) Doing What You Love and 2.) Earning A Living, is something which can remain a mystery to many throughout their lives. It seems to me that the vast majority of people don’t seem to have this ideal mix going for them. They generally have one or the other. Perhaps it might be too much to ask to have them both for a prolonged period of time, however is that not just a negative and self-defeating way to view things? It might very well be. I don’t think that anyone can expect their lives to consist only of fun and enjoyment - that is to say - pure pleasure. There are other moments involved as well, which provide the contrasts, if not the basis for what ultimately is pleasurable.

Not to detract from this reasonably lengthy read, I’d like to now turn the rest of this post over to Paul, and with thanks to him for his excellent manner in bringing this subject matter across to us.

So without further ado, here’s Paul …

January 2006

To do something well you have to like it. That idea is not exactly novel. We’ve got it down to four words: “Do what you love.” But it’s not enough just to tell people that. Doing what you love is complicated.

The very idea is foreign to what most of us learn as kids. When I was a kid, it seemed as if work and fun were opposites by definition. Life had two states: some of the time adults were making you do things, and that was called work; the rest of the time you could do what you wanted, and that was called playing. Occasionally the things adults made you do were fun, just as, occasionally, playing wasn’t—for example, if you fell and hurt yourself. But except for these few anomalous cases, work was pretty much defined as not-fun.

And it did not seem to be an accident. School, it was implied, was tedious because it was preparation for grownup work.

The world then was divided into two groups, grownups and kids. Grownups, like some kind of cursed race, had to work. Kids didn’t, but they did have to go to school, which was a dilute version of work meant to prepare us for the real thing. Much as we disliked school, the grownups all agreed that grownup work was worse, and that we had it easy.

Teachers in particular all seemed to believe implicitly that work was not fun. Which is not surprising: work wasn’t fun for most of them. Why did we have to memorize state capitals instead of playing dodgeball? For the same reason they had to watch over a bunch of kids instead of lying on a beach. You couldn’t just do what you wanted.

I’m not saying we should let little kids do whatever they want. They may have to be made to work on certain things. But if we make kids work on dull stuff, it might be wise to tell them that tediousness is not the defining quality of work, and indeed that the reason they have to work on dull stuff now is so they can work on more interesting stuff later. [1]

Once, when I was about 9 or 10, my father told me I could be whatever I wanted when I grew up, so long as I enjoyed it. I remember that precisely because it seemed so anomalous. It was like being told to use dry water. Whatever I thought he meant, I didn’t think he meant work could literally be fun—fun like playing. It took me years to grasp that.

Jobs

By high school, the prospect of an actual job was on the horizon. Adults would sometimes come to speak to us about their work, or we would go to see them at work. It was always understood that they enjoyed what they did. In retrospect I think one may have: the private jet pilot. But I don’t think the bank manager really did.

The main reason they all acted as if they enjoyed their work was presumably the upper-middle class convention that you’re supposed to. It would not merely be bad for your career to say that you despised your job, but a social faux-pas.

Why is it conventional to pretend to like what you do? The first sentence of this essay explains that. If you have to like something to do it well, then the most successful people will all like what they do. That’s where the upper-middle class tradition comes from. Just as houses all over America are full of chairs that are, without the owners even knowing it, nth-degree imitations of chairs designed 250 years ago for French kings, conventional attitudes about work are, without the owners even knowing it, nth-degree imitations of the attitudes of people who’ve done great things.

What a recipe for alienation. By the time they reach an age to think about what they’d like to do, most kids have been thoroughly misled about the idea of loving one’s work. School has trained them to regard work as an unpleasant duty. Having a job is said to be even more onerous than schoolwork. And yet all the adults claim to like what they do. You can’t blame kids for thinking “I am not like these people; I am not suited to this world.”

Actually they’ve been told three lies: the stuff they’ve been taught to regard as work in school is not real work; grownup work is not (necessarily) worse than schoolwork; and many of the adults around them are lying when they say they like what they do.

The most dangerous liars can be the kids’ own parents. If you take a boring job to give your family a high standard of living, as so many people do, you risk infecting your kids with the idea that work is boring. [2] Maybe it would be better for kids in this one case if parents were not so unselfish. A parent who set an example of loving their work might help their kids more than an expensive house. [3]

It was not till I was in college that the idea of work finally broke free from the idea of making a living. Then the important question became not how to make money, but what to work on. Ideally these coincided, but some spectacular boundary cases (like Einstein in the patent office) proved they weren’t identical.

The definition of work was now to make some original contribution to the world, and in the process not to starve. But after the habit of so many years my idea of work still included a large component of pain. Work still seemed to require discipline, because only hard problems yielded grand results, and hard problems couldn’t literally be fun. Surely one had to force oneself to work on them.

If you think something’s supposed to hurt, you’re less likely to notice if you’re doing it wrong. That about sums up my experience of graduate school.

Bounds

How much are you supposed to like what you do? Unless you know that, you don’t know when to stop searching. And if, like most people, you underestimate it, you’ll tend to stop searching too early. You’ll end up doing something chosen for you by your parents, or the desire to make money, or prestige—or sheer inertia.

Here’s an upper bound: Do what you love doesn’t mean, do what you would like to do most this second. Even Einstein probably had moments when he wanted to have a cup of coffee, but told himself he ought to finish what he was working on first.

It used to perplex me when I read about people who liked what they did so much that there was nothing they’d rather do. There didn’t seem to be any sort of work I liked that much. If I had a choice of (a) spending the next hour working on something or (b) be teleported to Rome and spend the next hour wandering about, was there any sort of work I’d prefer? Honestly, no.

But the fact is, almost anyone would rather, at any given moment, float about in the Carribbean, or have sex, or eat some delicious food, than work on hard problems. The rule about doing what you love assumes a certain length of time. It doesn’t mean, do what will make you happiest this second, but what will make you happiest over some longer period, like a week or a month.

Unproductive pleasures pall eventually. After a while you get tired of lying on the beach. If you want to stay happy, you have to do something.

As a lower bound, you have to like your work more than any unproductive pleasure. You have to like what you do enough that the concept of “spare time” seems mistaken. Which is not to say you have to spend all your time working. You can only work so much before you get tired and start to screw up. Then you want to do something else—even something mindless. But you don’t regard this time as the prize and the time you spend working as the pain you endure to earn it.

I put the lower bound there for practical reasons. If your work is not your favorite thing to do, you’ll have terrible problems with procrastination. You’ll have to force yourself to work, and when you resort to that the results are distinctly inferior.

To be happy I think you have to be doing something you not only enjoy, but admire. You have to be able to say, at the end, wow, that’s pretty cool. This doesn’t mean you have to make something. If you learn how to hang glide, or to speak a foreign language fluently, that will be enough to make you say, for a while at least, wow, that’s pretty cool. What there has to be is a test.

So one thing that falls just short of the standard, I think, is reading books. Except for some books in math and the hard sciences, there’s no test of how well you’ve read a book, and that’s why merely reading books doesn’t quite feel like work. You have to do something with what you’ve read to feel productive.

I think the best test is one Gino Lee taught me: to try to do things that would make your friends say wow. But it probably wouldn’t start to work properly till about age 22, because most people haven’t had a big enough sample to pick friends from before then.

Sirens

What you should not do, I think, is worry about the opinion of anyone beyond your friends. You shouldn’t worry about prestige. Prestige is the opinion of the rest of the world. When you can ask the opinions of people whose judgement you respect, what does it add to consider the opinions of people you don’t even know? [4]

This is easy advice to give. It’s hard to follow, especially when you’re young. [5] Prestige is like a powerful magnet that warps even your beliefs about what you enjoy. It causes you to work not on what you like, but what you’d like to like.

That’s what leads people to try to write novels, for example. They like reading novels. They notice that people who write them win Nobel prizes. What could be more wonderful, they think, than to be a novelist? But liking the idea of being a novelist is not enough; you have to like the actual work of novel-writing if you’re going to be good at it; you have to like making up elaborate lies.

Prestige is just fossilized inspiration. If you do anything well enough, you’ll make it prestigious. Plenty of things we now consider prestigious were anything but at first. Jazz comes to mind—though almost any established art form would do. So just do what you like, and let prestige take care of itself.

Prestige is especially dangerous to the ambitious. If you want to make ambitious people waste their time on errands, the way to do it is to bait the hook with prestige. That’s the recipe for getting people to give talks, write forewords, serve on committees, be department heads, and so on. It might be a good rule simply to avoid any prestigious task. If it didn’t suck, they wouldn’t have had to make it prestigious.

Similarly, if you admire two kinds of work equally, but one is more prestigious, you should probably choose the other. Your opinions about what’s admirable are always going to be slightly influenced by prestige, so if the two seem equal to you, you probably have more genuine admiration for the less prestigious one.

The other big force leading people astray is money. Money by itself is not that dangerous. When something pays well but is regarded with contempt, like telemarketing, or prostitution, or personal injury litigation, ambitious people aren’t tempted by it. That kind of work ends up being done by people who are “just trying to make a living.” (Tip: avoid any field whose practitioners say this.) The danger is when money is combined with prestige, as in, say, corporate law, or medicine. A comparatively safe and prosperous career with some automatic baseline prestige is dangerously tempting to someone young, who hasn’t thought much about what they really like.

The test of whether people love what they do is whether they’d do it even if they weren’t paid for it—even if they had to work at another job to make a living. How many corporate lawyers would do their current work if they had to do it for free, in their spare time, and take day jobs as waiters to support themselves?

This test is especially helpful in deciding between different kinds of academic work, because fields vary greatly in this respect. Most good mathematicians would work on math even if there were no jobs as math professors, whereas in the departments at the other end of the spectrum, the availability of teaching jobs is the driver: people would rather be English professors than work in ad agencies, and publishing papers is the way you compete for such jobs. Math would happen without math departments, but it is the existence of English majors, and therefore jobs teaching them, that calls into being all those thousands of dreary papers about gender and identity in the novels of Conrad. No one does that kind of thing for fun.

The advice of parents will tend to err on the side of money. It seems safe to say there are more undergrads who want to be novelists and whose parents want them to be doctors than who want to be doctors and whose parents want them to be novelists. The kids think their parents are “materialistic.” Not necessarily. All parents tend to be more conservative for their kids than they would for themselves, simply because, as parents, they share risks more than rewards. If your eight year old son decides to climb a tall tree, or your teenage daughter decides to date the local bad boy, you won’t get a share in the excitement, but if your son falls, or your daughter gets pregnant, you’ll have to deal with the consequences.

Discipline

With such powerful forces leading us astray, it’s not surprising we find it so hard to discover what we like to work on. Most people are doomed in childhood by accepting the axiom that work = pain. Those who escape this are nearly all lured onto the rocks by prestige or money. How many even discover something they love to work on? A few hundred thousand, perhaps, out of billions.

It’s hard to find work you love; it must be, if so few do. So don’t underestimate this task. And don’t feel bad if you haven’t succeeded yet. In fact, if you admit to yourself that you’re discontented, you’re a step ahead of most people, who are still in denial. If you’re surrounded by colleagues who claim to enjoy work that you find contemptible, odds are they’re lying to themselves. Not necessarily, but probably.

Although doing great work takes less discipline than people think—because the way to do great work is to find something you like so much that you don’t have to force yourself to do it—finding work you love does usually require discipline. Some people are lucky enough to know what they want to do when they’re 12, and just glide along as if they were on railroad tracks. But this seems the exception. More often people who do great things have careers with the trajectory of a ping-pong ball. They go to school to study A, drop out and get a job doing B, and then become famous for C after taking it up on the side.

Sometimes jumping from one sort of work to another is a sign of energy, and sometimes it’s a sign of laziness. Are you dropping out, or boldly carving a new path? You often can’t tell yourself. Plenty of people who will later do great things seem to be disappointments early on, when they’re trying to find their niche.

Is there some test you can use to keep yourself honest? One is to try to do a good job at whatever you’re doing, even if you don’t like it. Then at least you’ll know you’re not using dissatisfaction as an excuse for being lazy. Perhaps more importantly, you’ll get into the habit of doing things well.

Another test you can use is: always produce. For example, if you have a day job you don’t take seriously because you plan to be a novelist, are you producing? Are you writing pages of fiction, however bad? As long as you’re producing, you’ll know you’re not merely using the hazy vision of the grand novel you plan to write one day as an opiate. The view of it will be obstructed by the all too palpably flawed one you’re actually writing.

“Always produce” is also a heuristic for finding the work you love. If you subject yourself to that constraint, it will automatically push you away from things you think you’re supposed to work on, toward things you actually like. “Always produce” will discover your life’s work the way water, with the aid of gravity, finds the hole in your roof.

Of course, figuring out what you like to work on doesn’t mean you get to work on it. That’s a separate question. And if you’re ambitious you have to keep them separate: you have to make a conscious effort to keep your ideas about what you want from being contaminated by what seems possible. [6]

It’s painful to keep them apart, because it’s painful to observe the gap between them. So most people pre-emptively lower their expectations. For example, if you asked random people on the street if they’d like to be able to draw like Leonardo, you’d find most would say something like “Oh, I can’t draw.” This is more a statement of intention than fact; it means, I’m not going to try. Because the fact is, if you took a random person off the street and somehow got them to work as hard as they possibly could at drawing for the next twenty years, they’d get surprisingly far. But it would require a great moral effort; it would mean staring failure in the eye every day for years. And so to protect themselves people say “I can’t.”

Another related line you often hear is that not everyone can do work they love—that someone has to do the unpleasant jobs. Really? How do you make them? In the US the only mechanism for forcing people to do unpleasant jobs is the draft, and that hasn’t been invoked for over 30 years. All we can do is encourage people to do unpleasant work, with money and prestige.

If there’s something people still won’t do, it seems as if society just has to make do without. That’s what happened with domestic servants. For millennia that was the canonical example of a job “someone had to do.” And yet in the mid twentieth century servants practically disappeared in rich countries, and the rich have just had to do without.

So while there may be some things someone has to do, there’s a good chance anyone saying that about any particular job is mistaken. Most unpleasant jobs would either get automated or go undone if no one were willing to do them.

Two Routes

There’s another sense of “not everyone can do work they love” that’s all too true, however. One has to make a living, and it’s hard to get paid for doing work you love. There are two routes to that destination:

The organic route: as you become more eminent, gradually to increase the parts of your job that you like at the expense of those you don’t.

The two-job route: to work at things you don’t like to get money to work on things you do.

The organic route is more common. It happens naturally to anyone who does good work. A young architect has to take whatever work he can get, but if he does well he’ll gradually be in a position to pick and choose among projects. The disadvantage of this route is that it’s slow and uncertain. Even tenure is not real freedom.

The two-job route has several variants depending on how long you work for money at a time. At one extreme is the “day job,” where you work regular hours at one job to make money, and work on what you love in your spare time. At the other extreme you work at something till you make enough not to have to work for money again.

The two-job route is less common than the organic route, because it requires a deliberate choice. It’s also more dangerous. Life tends to get more expensive as you get older, so it’s easy to get sucked into working longer than you expected at the money job. Worse still, anything you work on changes you. If you work too long on tedious stuff, it will rot your brain. And the best paying jobs are most dangerous, because they require your full attention.

The advantage of the two-job route is that it lets you jump over obstacles. The landscape of possible jobs isn’t flat; there are walls of varying heights between different kinds of work. [7] The trick of maximizing the parts of your job that you like can get you from architecture to product design, but not, probably, to music. If you make money doing one thing and then work on another, you have more freedom of choice.

Which route should you take? That depends on how sure you are of what you want to do, how good you are at taking orders, how much risk you can stand, and the odds that anyone will pay (in your lifetime) for what you want to do. If you’re sure of the general area you want to work in and it’s something people are likely to pay you for, then you should probably take the organic route. But if you don’t know what you want to work on, or don’t like to take orders, you may want to take the two-job route, if you can stand the risk.

Don’t decide too soon. Kids who know early what they want to do seem impressive, as if they got the answer to some math question before the other kids. They have an answer, certainly, but odds are it’s wrong.

A friend of mine who is a quite successful doctor complains constantly about her job. When people applying to medical school ask her for advice, she wants to shake them and yell “Don’t do it!” (But she never does.) How did she get into this fix? In high school she already wanted to be a doctor. And she is so ambitious and determined that she overcame every obstacle along the way—including, unfortunately, not liking it.

Now she has a life chosen for her by a high-school kid.

When you’re young, you’re given the impression that you’ll get enough information to make each choice before you need to make it. But this is certainly not so with work. When you’re deciding what to do, you have to operate on ridiculously incomplete information. Even in college you get little idea what various types of work are like. At best you may have a couple internships, but not all jobs offer internships, and those that do don’t teach you much more about the work than being a batboy teaches you about playing baseball.

In the design of lives, as in the design of most other things, you get better results if you use flexible media. So unless you’re fairly sure what you want to do, your best bet may be to choose a type of work that could turn into either an organic or two-job career. That was probably part of the reason I chose computers. You can be a professor, or make a lot of money, or morph it into any number of other kinds of work.

It’s also wise, early on, to seek jobs that let you do many different things, so you can learn faster what various kinds of work are like. Conversely, the extreme version of the two-job route is dangerous because it teaches you so little about what you like. If you work hard at being a bond trader for ten years, thinking that you’ll quit and write novels when you have enough money, what happens when you quit and then discover that you don’t actually like writing novels?

Most people would say, I’d take that problem. Give me a million dollars and I’ll figure out what to do. But it’s harder than it looks. Constraints give your life shape. Remove them and most people have no idea what to do: look at what happens to those who win lotteries or inherit money. Much as everyone thinks they want financial security, the happiest people are not those who have it, but those who like what they do. So a plan that promises freedom at the expense of knowing what to do with it may not be as good as it seems.

Whichever route you take, expect a struggle. Finding work you love is very difficult. Most people fail. Even if you succeed, it’s rare to be free to work on what you want till your thirties or forties. But if you have the destination in sight you’ll be more likely to arrive at it. If you know you can love work, you’re in the home stretch, and if you know what work you love, you’re practically there.

Notes

[1] Currently we do the opposite: when we make kids do boring work, like arithmetic drills, instead of admitting frankly that it’s boring, we try to disguise it with superficial decorations.

[2] One father told me about a related phenomenon: he found himself concealing from his family how much he liked his work. When he wanted to go to work on a saturday, he found it easier to say that it was because he “had to” for some reason, rather than admitting he preferred to work than stay home with them.

[3] Something similar happens with suburbs. Parents move to suburbs to raise their kids in a safe environment, but suburbs are so dull and artificial that by the time they’re fifteen the kids are convinced the whole world is boring.

[4] I’m not saying friends should be the only audience for your work. The more people you can help, the better. But friends should be your compass.

[5] Donald Hall said young would-be poets were mistaken to be so obsessed with being published. But you can imagine what it would do for a 24 year old to get a poem published in The New Yorker. Now to people he meets at parties he’s a real poet. Actually he’s no better or worse than he was before, but to a clueless audience like that, the approval of an official authority makes all the difference. So it’s a harder problem than Hall realizes. The reason the young care so much about prestige is that the people they want to impress are not very discerning.

[6] This is isomorphic to the principle that you should prevent your beliefs about how things are from being contaminated by how you wish they were. Most people let them mix pretty promiscuously. The continuing popularity of religion is the most visible index of that.

[7] A more accurate metaphor would be to say that the graph of jobs is not very well connected.

Thanks to Trevor Blackwell, Dan Friedman, Sarah Harlin, Jessica Livingston, Jackie McDonough, Robert Morris, Peter Norvig, David Sloo, and Aaron Swartz for reading drafts of this.

:: Source

Idiocracy Now!

The film Idiocracy might not be everyone’s cup of tea. That’s for sure. Nevertheless, it is what it is - a parody of extreme dimensions. Take an average Joe, find an average Jane - that nobody is going to particularly miss.  Enter the military with a Top Secret mission with the goal of keeping people alive and preserved in a suspended state for years on end and you are good to go. An unfortunate event takes the experiment from a few years in to 500 years. Waking up after this military induced hibernation and finding yourself in a new world where your fellow inhabitants become ministerial candidates for being able to identify what an IQ is and you know … you’re in trouble.

Is this where the world might go? Where almost everyone is an idiot by and large with thanks to advertising and big business. Ultimate nightmare reality? For most, perhaps. For some, maybe not.

What is perhaps most interesting is the following article from Rob Walker, a columnist of the NY Times, where freakish fantasy hits the hard road of reality. The product infested world where the movie is set comes in to the here and now when some bright sparks decide to market and sell a product from this film - Brawndo - and - it’s not a joke.

Is this a parody of extreme odds and ends? Are several generations going to look forward to this sort of world as long as mass media is being influenced and culture being created by blockbuster ads and wonder products? Many would hope not I am assuming.

A taste of the film can be found in the scene below. I’ve seen this film and liked the idea of it.

In Mike Judge’s movie “Idiocracy,” an average and unambitious guy played by Luke Wilson hibernates as part of a military experiment and wakes up 500 years later. The America he wakes up to has devolved radically: inarticulate citizens stare slack-jawed at the base entertainments of the Violence Channel, the president is a former wrestler who presides over monster-truck gladiator spectacles in a rundown arena and the crops are dying because they are being irrigated with a sports drink called Brawndo, “the Thirst Mutilator.” It’s very funny. It’s also, if you happen to think about it, kind of depressing.

Some present-day brands exist in this dystopian future; Starbucks and Fuddruckers are there, although they have changed in ways that really can’t be described here. The dubious Brawndo attained its dominant role simply by buying the government agencies that might thwart its power and by marginalizing the use of water by corporate fiat. Witless consumers parrot the drink’s advertised inclusion of electrolytes as the best thing about it — though they clearly don’t know what electrolytes are or why they are supposed to be good. Of course, that is all made up. There is no Brawndo. Or there wasn’t until last November, when this instrument of consumer-culture satire joined actual consumer culture: 10,000 cases and counting of Brawndo have sold online or via convenience stores in the Northeast and other regions.

This happened not because of a movie-studio marketing brainstorm. (Twentieth Century Fox released the film briefly and without much enthusiasm in 2006 before tossing it to the DVD market, where it has gained a cult following.) It happened because of an “Idiocracy” fan in Oakland named Pete Hottelet. A graphic designer with very particular pop-culture tastes, Hottelet has started a business devoted to bringing to life certain products from movies. His business is called Omni Consumer Products, a name borrowed from the fictional megacorporation in “Robocop.” In addition to Brawndo, Omni has acquired from Paramount the license to market Sex Panther, a made-up cologne from the Will Ferrell vehicle “Anchorman” (“150% More Awesome Than Any Other Cologne. Ever.”).

Hottelet’s manufacturing partner is Redux Beverages. Redux was founded in 2006 by Jamey Kirby, a former software engineer, and is best known for a real energy drink called Cocaine. Cocaine received a lot of attention before “we had some issues with the F.D.A.,” Kirby says. He pulled it out of stores, and while he was retooling the marketing to address F.D.A. objections (he says it went back on the market in February), he heard from Hottelet — “an absolutely brilliant guy.” Hottelet explained the pitch: the drink had to contain electrolytes and had to be an alarmingly bright green, as in the movie.

“I watched ‘Idiocracy,’ and I was like, ‘O.K., we’re in,’ ” Kirby says. “Based on how things are going on in the world, and especially our country right now, this is a shoo-in.” He laughs as he says this, so I wasn’t sure what he meant. Are we already living “Idiocracy”? “Absolutely,” he says. “It’s all about overcommercialization.” The video ads on the Brawndo site, commissioned by Hottelet, feature members of Picnicface, a Canadian comedy troop, shouting hilariously over-the-top pitches: “It’s like a monster truck you pour into your face!” (The pitches actually owe quite a bit to videos Picnicface has made for a drink called Powerthirst — which doesn’t exist. I don’t think.)

It’s interesting to consider the Brawndo project as metasubversion, making it possible to express knowing amusement at the absurdity of American commerce by buying something. But maybe the message is simply that cautionary tales about dumbed-down culture are a futile endeavor: show us an argument that we will buy anything, no matter how idiotic, and we say, “Awesome — how much for that?”

Or maybe the lesson is something else altogether. “People want to know, ‘Who are you?’ ” Hottelet says. “I don’t know. Some guy.” This is a telling comment. Invariably the darkly comic sci-fi future is dominated by huge media conglomerates and overbearing corporations that deliver us into some idiocracy or other by force, and from above. But we know things haven’t turned out that way, and it’s now the wily and tech-enabled citizen who embarrasses companies and politicians or becomes a virtual celebrity or — why not? — makes Brawdo a tangible thing in the world. The stupid-funny future is all around us, and we can’t get enough of it, and we have Some Guy to thank.

Source

OmegaRED and AXE

“None of that compares to the Grand Daddy of all shit commercials: Axe Deodorant. Never have I seen such a god awful product (which stinks like a homeless mans asshole) marketed so successfully that every young male thinks layering themselves with this trench urine will get him the chicks. The ads are sexist and stupid but they always find a way to make the next ad even worse. If I recall the latest Axe marketing, they’ve convinced the idiots who buy it to buy 2 bottles next time because they’ll create some sort of magic chick magnet effect when 1 & 2 are mixed together. The only noticeable effect I’ve seen is everyone stayed clear of the funk emanating from the guys who try this.”

:: Source

The Madness and Wisdom of Crowds

Wildebeest Migration

Two books.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds - Charles Mackay.

The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations - James Surowiecki.

Maybe you’ve heard of them or even read them. Right now, it does not matter.

Mackay addresses ‘popular delusions’ or ‘mass hysteria’ - how following the herd can be a bad idea.

Surowiecki takes the position that the herd can make better [collective] decisions - under certain circumstances.

Mackay and Surowiecki seem at odds with each other. Mackay advises caution in following the herd. Surowiecki thinks that the herd can provide useful insights.

Now for nature to enter the fold.

Did you know that almost 2 million herbivores migrate in what is called “The Great Migration” - every year in Africa? The reason for undertaking such an epic journey is quite simply for food.

What I find fascinating is that whilst there certainly a wisdom of crowd behaviour in this mass migration; mainly that there is safety in numbers against the predators that have easy access to food due to the vast amount of choice available. There is also the madness of the crowd, because due to the nature of moving in a mass, events, such as an attack by predator, such as a leopard on an individual animal, can trigger panic and cause the death of many more.

Let me explain this a little more.

I saw a documentary on the mass migration of the wildebeest the other evening. They’d made their way across the plains in two groups. The first group was ‘greedy’ to cross the Mara River in order to get to the other side where the lush fields of green awaited them. They crossed the river once they reached it and due to a lack of adequate numbers, were easy pickings for the lions, leopards, cheetah’s and crocodiles. Good for the predators as they have easy pickings. Bad for the wildebeest and other animals involved in the first crossing as they don’t have the herd to protect them. [That is to say, the predators feel less ‘comfortable’ when confronted with a herd of hooves to collectively protect one another from their attacks.]

Now, when the bulk of the herd arrived to cross the river, they picked what seemed to be an ideal crossing point. Ideal, in the face that the crocodiles were also ready to leap in to action. It makes sense for both predator and prey. A shallow and narrow enough point in the river meant that it would take less time, require less effort and be a relatively safer option than a wider part of the river where more time in deeper water would mean greater risk to the crocodiles in particular.

The bulk of the herd started their crossing at a narrow and shallow [enough] point along the river. In they plunged and off they went. The crocodiles also fired up their routine, as did the other predators. It was business as usual. During this exodus though and on the day of shooting a specific part of the river, a leopard decided to attack after slinking alongside the river and pouncing at what was to be for the wildebeest, an inopportune moment. The action of the leopard caused panic. Initially the leopard missed the target it was after, however, due to unwittingly inciting panic, the entire head of the river crossing herd, decided to move off to another location to cross the river. This they did, however, it was at their own folly.

The new location seemed fine and fair enough. Similar optimum crossing conditions as before, however there was a problem. The river bank on the opposite side of the crossing point was too steep and had no easy access route for the wildebeest to successfully cross the river to the other side. The bank was just too steep. In fact it was a precipice, which in turn, made it a cul-de-sac. A dead end. Quite literally, as the wildebeest stormed across the river and started to reach the other side, they came to face a space problem. There was not enough on the other side of the river to allow for their numbers to gain an adequate footing and therefore, perhaps, figure out another way to overcome the river bank that they could not get over. The knock-on effect of this was that soon the river bank was overpopulated and the animals were starting to trample each other, either back in to the water or in to the mud, where many of them were injured and later died. Added to this, the crocodiles did not have to do very much in the way of exposing themselves to danger, because they just had to wait for the animals to give up or die in the process of attempting to cross the river. The other predators also had an easier time, because they too could take advantage of the sad demise of the wildebeest because of the herd mentality that was in operation.

Whilst the crowd had been successful in detecting a safe enough path over the river, the crowd also was responsible for the death of many of their own when they hit the panic button due to a single event that disrupted the plan and changed the fate and fortune of the herd. From the perspective of the predators, this was a great decision. Less risk and more food. Winning!

So where does this lead us?

The end result. The wildebeest & co. managed to cross the river in great enough numbers to ensure the survival of their species by getting to the optimum grazing grounds. As a group they made a successful crossing. Some of them died in the process, not necessarily due to the predators lurking about, but due to a weakness that seems to be inherent in mass, crowd or herd behaviour. We might call this “The Lemming Effect” - with excuses to all lemming fans across the globe. On the whole though, the deaths or losses to the herd did not seem to cause any serious threat to the future of the wildebeest - and we’ll guess other animals crossing as well, too. Every creature can make a mistake. Even wild animals. Humans, certainly too.

The predators also scored a success. Regardless of whether or not the wildebeest took a wrong turn or made a mistake in deciding their path across the river and over the river bank, they still managed to get what they wanted. Food. Food for themselves and food for their own kind, as well as, food for their young. On the whole, every participant gained, if you consider the collective good of all. Risk and reward were factored in to both camps of prey and predator, with reward seeming to come out on top. This, in the face that there were injuries and deaths - on both sides - the show still went on going.

Wisdom and Madness worked together to form the end result.

What however is the relevance of the migration of the wildebeest and the ‘migration’ of human beings? I am not talking about the physical migration of human beings here, but in more specific terms, the migration of world finance. In yet a more specific reference, I am aiming at the movements of stock markets.

At this moment in time there is mention of the “credit crisis” and how it is going to have adverse effects - namely - recession. Global recession that is.

Stock markets go up and down all the time. It is the nature of the stock market to do so. This is called a cycle. It is a pattern. People make money by placing bets on the outcomes of various businesses and either win or lose. In certain periods of time, there is a tendency for these predictions to be accurate and at other times, not. The degree of prediction correctness rests within the markets and the players who influence the markets. Super simplified, I know.

The point though is to see if we can draw a parallel between the wisdom and madness of crowd behaviour to see if whether or not, like the example of the mass migration of the wildebeest, whether or not there are any correlations towards helping us to find some learnings and thereby help us lessen the blows of market conditions when things go sour. This might seem nice in theory. In practice though, would it make any difference if we did in fact find something useful to learn from the above?

I somehow doubt it. Sadly enough, it is my honest belief that even if we were armed with some startling insights and could indeed educate the individuals in a herd, not to get spooked by the actions of an individual or even small groups of individuals, because they did not have correct or accurate information and thereby cause the demise of many others, who haplessly trust and follow the lead - then maybe better alternative choices would be made. The predators would get their full. Take that for granted. The herd though will lose fewer numbers. We hope. Then again, and perhaps to be a little controversial here, what if we don’t really concern ourselves with the fact that there can and will be ‘collateral damage’ along the way, and instead of looking out for those outside of our ‘group of concern’ - we just - focus on those who matter to us most and consider ourselves lucky, fortunate or even wise enough to know, when to join in with the madness and wisdom of the crowd and when to rely on our own individual responsibility to make judgments when we should move in another direction, taking an alternative course an avoiding the trampled down or eaten up fate of others?

This seems to make sense to me. Just how though, is this going to be possible? Is experience going to teach us when to make a move or when not to make a move or make an alternative move? Will luck play a role? Insider or expertise knowledge? Perhaps the smart solution is to establish a threshold of ‘necessary awareness’ and measure the necessity of this knowledge in combination with present conditions, future predictions and personal goals.

An interesting topic in my opinion and perhaps one worthy of some future exploration at a later point in time. For now though, this very basic introductory article, stemming out of a documentary and the recent movements of the stock market, make this an interesting subject topic to discuss. Do you have any thoughts on this? If so, let’s chat!

Global Mobile Advertising Guidelines

The Mobile Marketing Association has released their Global Mobile Advertising Guideline.

The Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), which represents more than 600 companies across the mobile marketing ecosystem, today announced the release of its global Mobile Advertising Guidelines. The first set of global guidelines issued by the association, are designed to encourage the uptake of mobile advertising by brands worldwide whilst enhancing and protecting the customer’s experience, by creating a framework for brands and media companies to deliver mobile advertising in a positive and consistent way. The guidelines have received industry endorsements from associations such as IAB UK and Mexico, dotMobi Advisory Group (MAG), ADMA and others.

You can download the guidelines in a PDF over here.

Mobile Trends 2008 - America’s Emerging Mobile Web [from Marta Strickland]

Another fine presentation IMHO.
I’ll follow up with the new guidelines for mobile content creation either over the weekend or early next week.

10 Principles Of Effective Web Design [from Smashing Magazine]

Usability and the utility, not the visual design, determine the success or failure of a web-site. Since the visitor of the page is the only person who clicks the mouse and therefore decides everything, user-centric design has become a standard approach for successful and profit-oriented web design. After all, if users can’t use a feature, it might as well not exist.

We aren’t going to discuss the implementation details (e.g. where the search box should be placed) as it has already been done in a number of articles; instead we focus on the main principles, heuristics and approaches for effective web design — approaches which, used properly, can lead to more sophisticated design decisions and simplify the process of perceiving presented information.

Okay, so I have been changing the layout and design of this blog semi non-stop, since I fired it up not so long ago. I’m still not happy with it - far from it actually - however - as my mind bubbles and brews over what to do, I’ll stick with adding in content.

The full article where the excerpt from above come from can be found over here.

Well worth a read I’d say.